ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF APPLE PRODUCTION IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA AND BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Abstract

The paper analyzes the parameters of apple production in
the Republic of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina in the period
2006-17. The prediction of apple production parameters for next year
was carried out using the linear trend model and moving average. The
following parameters were analyzed: harvested area (ha), yield (t/ha)
and total production (t). On average, there were 24,760 hectares with
apple trees in Serbia and 19.040 hectares in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The average apple yield was 12.7 t/ha in Serbia and 3.43 t/ha in
Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the observed period, there was an
average tendency of increase in yield by 3.78% per year in Serbia,
whereas in Bosnia and Herzegovina, there was a noticeable negative
rate, namely a tendency of yield decline by 1.17% on average per
year. The average annual apple production in Serbia was 313,177
tons and in the analyzed period there was a tendency of increase in
yield by 4,22%. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the average annual apple
production was 65,186 tons and in the analyzed period there was a
negative rate of 0.96% i.e. a decline in yield. In the next year, the
Republic of Serbia should achieve apple production of 431,305 tons,
while Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected to produce 60,657 tons